Disease Forecasting, Hotspot Detection & Early Warning

Forecasts you can plan with

Know what is coming, and how sure we are

Forecasts for 7 to 90 days ahead always come with their confidence ranges, so teams can see both the likely trend and the uncertainty before they commit resources.

80% and 95% confidence ranges on every forecast
Proven statistical methods flag emerging clusters
Models backtested and monitored for drift

Illustrative forecast - simulated values, fictional areas. Not a real prediction.

What's included

Capabilities at a glance

Disease forecasting

7, 14, 30 and 90-day forecasts, each with an 80% and 95% confidence range.

Hotspot and cluster detection

Proven statistical methods (Getis-Ord Gi*, Local Moran's I, space-time scan statistics, EARS) find emerging signals.

Composite risk index

A weighted, configurable risk index, plus an Intervention Gap Index that shows where coverage falls short.

Validated models

Every model is backtested, scored on its accuracy and monitored for drift.

Disease modules

Malaria and Dengue today, with more diseases added by configuration.

How it works

From data to decision

01
Forecast
Models project cases over four horizons, with uncertainty shown as confidence ranges.
02
Detect
Statistical methods flag clusters and unusual increases as they emerge.
03
Score
The composite risk index and Intervention Gap Index rank areas for attention.
04
Validate
Accuracy is tracked against what actually happened, and drift is flagged.

Platform Intelligence