Dengue preparedness, informed by climate and cities.

Disease burden context

The World Health Organization reports that the global incidence of dengue has grown dramatically in recent decades, with about half of the world’s population now at risk. India is among the countries reporting substantial dengue activity. Reported cases are known to undercount true infections, because many are mild or unreported.

Environmental and geographic risk

Aedes mosquitoes breed in small containers of water in and around homes, construction sites and urban infrastructure. Monsoon rainfall, temperature and water storage practices strongly influence the timing and intensity of transmission.

• Monsoon onset and post-monsoon peaks
• Urban density and construction activity
• Water storage and drainage patterns

Predictive intelligence

Epinova is developing short-term dengue forecasts that combine surveillance data with climate signals, aiming to give municipal and state teams additional lead time before seasonal peaks.

Population vulnerability

Dense informal settlements, limited water and sanitation infrastructure, and constrained access to care can increase both exposure and the consequences of severe dengue.

Intervention planning

Source reduction, larviciding, fogging, community engagement and hospital preparedness are most effective when concentrated in the right wards ahead of a surge. Epinova aims to link forecasts to these ward-level plans.