Malaria intelligence for targeted, timely prevention.

Disease burden context

According to the World Health Organization, the WHO African Region carries the large majority of the world’s malaria cases and deaths, and Nigeria accounts for the largest share of any single country. Children under five are among the most affected. Current figures are published annually in the WHO World Malaria Report.

Environmental and geographic risk

Transmission by Anopheles mosquitoes is shaped by rainfall, temperature, humidity, standing water and land use. In a country as large as Nigeria, these conditions - and the timing of the transmission season - vary substantially between the Sahelian north and the humid south.

• Lagged rainfall and temperature effects
• Seasonality differences across ecological zones
• Urban and peri-urban transmission patterns

Predictive intelligence

Epinova is developing models that combine routine surveillance with climate and environmental data to estimate how malaria risk is likely to evolve over coming weeks and across the season, at the sub-national level where programmes plan.

Population vulnerability

Risk is not evenly experienced. Vulnerability analysis considers age structure, pregnancy, distance to care, prior intervention coverage and socio-economic factors to identify communities where malaria is likely to cause the most harm.

Intervention planning

Insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying, seasonal malaria chemoprevention, case management and - increasingly - vaccination all depend on reaching the right communities at the right time. Epinova aims to connect risk intelligence directly to these operational decisions.